Future Space Transportation Study

My first job at Andrews Space was the role of Project Manager for the FSTS. It aimed to identify future commercial markets and derive requirements for prospective vehicles that would service these markets. The study focused on three specific markets: space-based semiconductor fabrication, biomedical applications, and LEO passenger travel.

Results indicated a possible demand for in-space semiconductor laboratory facilities in the 2007 time-frame, utilizing the vacuum and low gravity space environment to further improve the state of the art in silicon based production techniques. In addition, the pharmaceutical industry was also identified as well suited to space migration.

The team attempted to identify specific products that would benefit from space unique resources (hard vacuum, zero-g, appealing asthetics, etc.). For LEO passengers, analysis showed attractive business opportunities. Market analysis and interview data was used to derive Reusable Launch Vehicle (RLV) system requirements to serve the markets identified in the study.

The Future Space Transportation Study was a limited scope effort that analyzed approximately 20% of the potential future markets, as outlined by the Commercial Space Transportation Study (CSTS) published in 1994. The results of the limited market analyses conducted here supported the general conclusions put forth by the CSTS: that the space launch market is in-elastic above a certain launch price point (approximately $600 per pound) and elastic for prices below.

It was determined that many of the future markets would be enabled once the frequency and cost of space access achieves thresholds that allow established terrestrial industries to make money in space. This fact, that new revenues will come from multiple established industries, reduces the investment risk of fielding a 2nd Generation Launch System. This created a situation where business risk was piled on top of business risk. In contrast, this market study indicated that future market revenues will come from many different business sectors and consist of capturing very small fractions of large established industries. The final report is available (PDF). There is also an Executive Summary, and an animated movie.